Global Systemic Economic Rupture

World Economic Crash at its moment of thruth.

http://www.tiesweb.org/dialogues/incorrect/archives/biancheri56.php3
by Franck Biancheri : President of TIESWeb, President of Newropeans, fellow researcher at Europe 2020..

17/02/2006

The Laboratoire européen d’Anticipation Politique Europe 2020 (LEAP/E2020) now estimates to over 80% the probability that the week of March 20-26, 2006 will be the beginning of the most significant political crisis the world has known since the Fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989, together with an economic and financial crisis of a scope comparable with that of 1929. This last week of March 2006 will be the turning-point of a number of critical developments, resulting in an acceleration of all the factors leading to a major crisis, disregard any American or Israeli military intervention against Iran. In case such an intervention is conducted, the probability of a major crisis to start rises up to 100%, according to LEAP/E2020.
An Alarm based on 2 verifiable eventsThe announcement of this crisis results from the analysis of decisions taken by the two key-actors of the main on-going international crisis, i.e. the United States and Iran:
--> on the one hand there is the Iranian decision of opening the first oil bourse priced in Euros on March 20th, 2006 in Teheran, available to all oil producers of the region ;
--> on the other hand, there is the decision of the American Federal Reserve to stop publishing M3 figures (the most reliable indicator on the amount of dollars circulating in the world) from March 23, 2006 onward [1].
These two decisions constitute altogether the indicators, the causes and the consequences of the historical transition in progress between the order created after World War II and the new international equilibrium in gestation since the collapse of the USSR. Their magnitude as much as their simultaneity will catalyse all the tensions, weaknesses and imbalances accumulated since more than a decade throughout the international system.
A world crisis declined in 7 sector-based crisesLEAP/E2020's researchers and analysts thus identified 7 convergent crises that the American and Iranian decisions coming into effect during the last week of March 2006, will catalyse and turn into a total crisis, affecting the whole planet in the political, economic and financial fields, as well as in the military field most probably too:
1. Crisis of confidence in the Dollar2. Crisis of US financial imbalances3. Oil crisis4. Crisis of the American leadership5. Crisis of the Arabo-Muslim world6. Global governance crisis7. European governance crisis
The entire process of anticipation of this crisis will be described in detail in the coming issues of LEAP/E2020’s confidential letter – the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin, and in particular in the 2nd issue to be released on February 16, 2006. These coming issues will present the detailed analysis of each of the 7 crises, together with a large set of recommendations intended for various categories of players (governments and companies, namely), as well as with a number of operational and strategic advices for the European Union.
Decoding of the event “Creation of the Iranian Oil Bourse priced in Euros”However, and in order not to limit this information to decision makers solely, LEAP/E2020 has decided to circulate widely this official statement together with the following series of arguments resulting from work conducted.Iran's opening of an Oil Bourse priced in Euros at the end of March 2006 will be the end of the monopoly of the Dollar on the global oil market. The immediate result is likely to upset the international currency market as producing countries will be able to charge their production in Euros also. In parallel, European countries in particular will be able to buy oil directly in their own currency without going though the Dollar. Concretely speaking, in both cases this means that a lesser number of economic actors will need a lesser number of Dollars [2]. This double development will thus head to the same direction, i.e. a very significant reduction of the importance of the Dollar as the international reserve currency, and therefore a significant and sustainable weakening of the American currency, in particular compared to the Euro. The most conservative evaluations give €1 to $1,30 US Dollar by the end of 2006. But if the crisis reaches the scope anticipated by LEAP/E2020, estimates of €1 for $1,70 in 2007 are no longer unrealistic.
Decoding of the event “End of publication of the M3 macro-economic indicator”The end of the publication by the American Federal Reserve of the M3 monetary aggregate (and that of other components) [3] , a decision vehemently criticized by the community of economists and financial analysts, will have as a consequence to lose transparency on the evolution of the amount of Dollars in circulation worldwide. For some months already, M3 has significantly increased (indicating that « money printing » has already speeded up in Washington), knowing that the new President of the US Federal Reserve, Matt Bernanke, is a self-acknowledged fan of « money printing » [4]. Considering that a strong fall of the Dollar would probably result in a massive sale of the US Treasury Bonds held in Asia, in Europe and in the oil-producing countries, LEAP/E2020 estimates that the American decision to stop publishing M3 aims at hiding as long as possible two US decisions, partly imposed by the political and economic choices made these last years [5]:
. the ‘monetarisation’ of the US debt. the launch of a monetary policy to support US economic activity.… two policies to be implemented until at least the October 2006 « mid-term » elections, in order to prevent the Republican Party from being sent in reeling.This M3-related decision also illustrates the incapacity of the US and international monetary and financial authorities put in a situation where they will in the end prefer to remove the indicator rather than try to act on the reality.
Decoding of the aggravating factor “The military intervention against Iran”Iran holds some significant geo-strategic assets in the current crisis, such as its ability to intervene easily and with a major impact on the oil provisioning of Asia and Europe (by blocking the Strait of Ormuz), on the conflicts in progress in Iraq and Afghanistan, not to mention the possible recourse to international terrorism. But besides these aspects, the growing distrust towards Washington creates a particularly problematic situation. Far from calming both Asian and European fears concerning the accession of Iran to the statute of nuclear power, a military intervention against Iran would result in an quasi-immediate dissociation of the European public opinions [6] which, in a context where Washington has lost its credibility in handling properly this type of case since the invasion of Iraq, will prevent the European governments from making any thing else than follow their public opinions. In parallel, the rising cost of oil which would follow such an intervention will lead Asian countries, China first and foremost, to oppose this option, thus forcing the United States (or Israel) to intervene on their own, without UN guarantee, therefore adding a severe military and diplomatic crisis to the economic and financial crisis.
Relevant factors of the American economic crisisLEAP/E2020 anticipate that these two non-official decisions will involve the United States and the world in a monetary, financial, and soon economic crisis without precedent on a planetary scale. The ‘monetarisation’ of the US debt is indeed a very technical term describing a catastrophically simple reality: the United States undertake not to refund their debt, or more exactly to refund it in "monkey currency". LEAP/E2020 also anticipate that the process will accelerate at the end of March, in coincidence with the launching of the Iranian Oil Bourse, which can only precipitate the sales of US Treasury Bonds by their non-American holders.

In this perspective, it is useful to contemplate the following information 7: the share of the debt of the US government owned by US banks fell down to 1,7% in 2004, as opposed to 18% in 1982. In parallel, the share of this same debt owned by foreign operators went from 17% in 1982 up to 49% in 2004. --> Question: How comes that US banks got rid of almost all their share of the US national debt over the last years?
Moreover, in order to try to avoid the explosion of the "real-estate bubble" on which rests the US household consumption, and at a time when the US saving rate has become negative for the first time since 1932 and 1933 (in the middle of the "Great Depression"), the Bush administration, in partnership with the new owner of the US Federal Reserve and a follower of this monetary approach, will flood the US market of liquidities.
Some anticipated effects of this systemic ruptureAccording to LEAP/E2020, the non-accidental conjunction of the Iranian and American decisions, is a decisive stage in the release of a systemic crisis marking the end of the international order set up after World War II, and will be characterised between the end of March and the end of the year 2006 by a plunge in the dollar (possibly down to 1 Euro = 1,70 US Dollars in 2007) putting an immense upward pressure on the Euro, a significant rise of the oil price (over 100$ per barrel), an aggravation of the American and British military situations in the Middle East, a US budgetary, financial and economic crisis comparable in scope with the 1929 crisis, very serious economic and financial consequences for Asia in particular (namely China) but also for the United Kingdom [8], a sudden stop in the economic process of globalisation, a collapse of the transatlantic axis leading to a general increase of all the domestic and external political dangers all over the world.
For individual dollar-holders, as for trans-national corporations or political and administrative decision makers, the consequences of this last week of March 2006 will be crucial. These consequences require some difficult decisions to be made as soon as possible (crisis anticipation is always a complex process since it relies on a bet) because once the crisis begins, the stampede starts and all those who chose to wait lose.For private individuals, the choice is clear: the US Dollar no longer is a “refuge” currency. The rising-cost of gold over the last year shows that many people have already anticipated this trend of the US currency.

Anticipating… or being swept away by the winds of historyFor companies and governments - European ones in particular - LEAP/E2020 has developed in its confidential letter – the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin -, and in particular in the next issue, a series of strategic and operational recommendations which, if integrated in today's decision-making processes, can contribute to soften significantly the "monetary, financial and economic tsunami" which will break on the planet at the end of next month. To use a simple image – by the way, one used in the political anticipation scenario « USA 2010 » [9] -, the impact of the events of the last week of March 2006 on the “Western World” we have known since 1945 will be comparable to the impact of the Fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989 on the “Soviet Block”.
If this Alarm is so precise, it is that LEAP/E2020’s analyses concluded that all possible scenarios now lead to one single result: we collectively approach a "historical node" which is henceforth inevitable whatever the action of international or national actors. At this stage, only a direct and immediate action on the part of the US administration aimed at preventing a military confrontation with Iran on the one hand, and at giving up the idea to monetarise the US foreign debt on the other hand, could change the course of events. For LEAP/E2020 it is obvious that not only such actions will not be initiated by the current leaders in Washington, but that on the contrary they have already chosen "to force the destiny" by shirking their economic and financial problems at the expense of the rest of the world. European governments in particular should draw very quickly all the conclusions from this fact.
For information, LEAP/E2020's original method of political anticipation has allowed several of its experts to anticipate (and publish) in particular : in 1988, the pproaching end of the Iron Curtain; in 1997, the progressive collapse in capacity of action and democratic legitimacy of the European institutional system; in 2002, the US being stuck in Iraq’s quagmire and above all the sustainable collapse of US international credibility; in 2003, the failure of the referenda on the European Constitution. Its methodology of anticipation of "systemic ruptures" now being well established, it is our duty as researchers and citizens to share it with the citizens and the European decision makers; especially because for individual or collective, private or public players, it is still time to undertake measures in order to reduce significantly the impact of this crisis on their positions whether these are economic, political or financial.
LEAP/E2020's complete analysis, as well as its strategic and operational recommendations intended for the private and public actors, will be detailed in the next issues of the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin, and more particularly in the econd one (issued February 16th, 2006).
1. These decisions were made a few months ago already:. the information on the creation by the Iranian government of an oil bourse priced in Euros (http://www.mehrnews.com/en/NewsDetail.aspx?NewsID=260851 ) first appeared in Summer 2004 in the specialised press.. the Federal Reserve announced on November 10, 2005 that it would cease publisging the information concerning M3 from March 23, 2006 onward :http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/discm3.htm2. By examining Table 13B of the December 2005 Securities Statistics of the Bank for International Settlements entitled International Bonds and Notes (in billions of US dollars), by currency ), one can notice that at the end of 2004 (China not-included), 37.0% of the international financial assets were labelled in USD vs 46,8% in Euros ; while in 2000, the proportion was contrary with 49,6% labelled in USD for 30,1% only in Euros. It indicates that the March 2006 decisions will most probably accelerate the trend of exit-strategy from the dollar.3. Monetary aggregates (M1, M2, M3, M4) are statistical economic indicators. M0 is the value of all currency - here the dollar - that exists in actual bank notes and coins. M1 is M0 + checking accounts of this currency. M2 is M1 + money market accounts and Certificates of Deposits (CD) under $100,000. M3 is M2 + all larger holdings in the dollar (Eurodollar reserves, larger instruments and most non-European nations' reserve holdings) of $100,000 and more. The key point here is that when the Fed stops reporting M3, the entire world will lose transparency on the value of reserve holdings in dollars by other nations and major financial institutions.4. See his eloquent speech on these aspects before the National Economists Club, Washington DC, November 21, 2002(http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm )
5. It should be noticed that the upward trend of the Dollar in 2005 was mostly the result of an interest rate differential which was favourable for the US Dollar, and of the “tax break on foreign earnings” Law (only valid for 1 year) which brought back to the US over $200 billion in the course of 2005. (source : CNNmoney.comhttp://money.cnn.com/2005/10/05/news/economy/jobs_overseas_profits )
6. As regards Europe, LEAP/E2020 wishes to underline that European governments are no longer in line with their opinions concerning the major topics, and in particular concerning the European collective interest. The January 2006 GlobalEurometre clearly highlighted the situation with a Tide-Legitimacy Indicator of 8% (showing that 92% of the panel consider that EU leaders no longer represent their collective interests) and a Tide-Action Indicator of 24% (showing that less than a quarter of the panel thinks EU leaders are capable of translating their own decisions into concrete actions). According to LEAP/E2020, public declarations of support to Washington coming from Paris, Berlin or London, should not hide the fact that the Europeans will quickly dissociate from the US in case of military attack (the GlobalEurometre is a monthly European opinion indicator publishing in the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin 3 figures out of which 2 are public).
7.(source : Bond Market Association, Holders of Treasury Securities: Estimated Ownership of U.S. Public Debt Securities ;http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/1/28/122315/558 )
8. The United Kingdom indeed owns close to 3,000 billion $ of credits, that is almost three times what countries such as France or Japan hold. (source Bank of International Settlements, Table 9A, Consolidated Claims of Reporting Banks on Individual Countries ) 9. Cf. GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin N°1 (January 2006)

Work In Iraq is it worth it for South Africans?

From: UnveiledAJStuijt (Original Message) Sensorbugbear

January 27 2006 - The following messages, and which we should all heed and urgently forward to all our friends, were placed on the "South African Police Service Photos" website this month:
http://groups.msn.com/SouthAfricanPoliceServicePhotos/_notifications.msnw?type=msg&action=showdiscussion&parent=1&item=202
"SAPS-Durban' writes:
"Working in Iraq - is it really worth it?".'Is it really worth the risk? Not only will you work in a country where suicide bombers, car bombings and decapitations are the norm, but you will also run the risk of being imprisoned and fined by your own country (South Africa) should you manage to survive the ordeal!"
"Ruski" writes: "Talk to the SA police who have been there"
There are companies in the UK and in US - Blackwater is one I know of, there are also quite a few companies in SA, only problem is they don't advertise, because the goverment is trying to pass the new 'mercenaries act' which would stop us from going to work! If you can come join the discussions on http://saps.reserve.org.za - the police reservist site for SA -- some of the guys have been over (to Iraq), so ... chat to them."
Joe Winson wrote: 'Cousin Jan Spyker Strauss was blown up'
My cousin died just before Christmas in a IED explosion. He was driving an armoured car as CP (civilian protector) to an Iraqi. "He died in the blast and the principle survived. He leaves behind a mother and father, 3 brothers, a wife and 2 young children, all in the greater JHB area.
"Our thoughts and prayers go not to only the family of Jan "Spyker" Strauss, but to all the families who have lost loved ones in the line of duty."
Jim Borsa wrote with "Humble Advice"
"I have recently returned from Iraq and have some humble advice. If you are well trained, professional, well equipped, well supported and current there are a number of companies who will employ you.
The easiest manner in which to join one of these companies is to join in London.
However, although the pay is excellent it is definitely a single man's option as there is little recourse for the 3 months spent away, two weeks leave and then another three months. You can do up to a year on an open engagement with options to be retained - if you survive.
'Be aware that there are a lot of fly by night companies and a lot of cowboys who conduct themselves in an extremely unprofessional manner in theatre.

Do not end up in a situation where you do not trust those whom you 'are working with as some only talk a good fight and have no experince, tactical know how or expertise to back it up. These are the idiots who jump in without any plan and get themselves and others killed.
'Think very carefully about where you are going and research Iraq and the companies well. Remember you are an "infidel" in an Islamic country. Do not think it is like SA or even remotely like the border or the townships. It is not.
'The enemy is an extremely advanced, motivated and ruthless terrorist who uses his local knowledge to the best of his advantage.
'He is often well supported by foreign subversives who have very advanced technology to spoil your day.
Beware of American gung-ho companies... 'Furthermore beware of the American private companies and their employees. They can be extremely unprofessional, gung-ho and have a tendancy to upset local sensitivities. This can easily get you killed.

'This is however a general overview and some can be professional. Remember the hearts and minds battle is part of your daily bread and butter so do not negate the minor things you may take for granted or do as it could seriously jeopardise your life.
That said, have a look at Erynis, Aegis and Kroll on the net.
Good luck. Make your decision carefully.'
http://groups.msn.com/SouthAfricanPoliceServicePhotos/_notifications.msnw?type=msg&action=showdiscussion&parent=1&item=202

New Battlefronts Opened

Bittereinders Lees/Read between the lines
This involves South Africa Directly and the attack on America.

As a global war rages, al-Qaida has shed its earlier image of a disorganized group of “extremists” and is viewed more and more as a sophisticated organization with clear and concise policies, well defined strategies and carefully laid plans for their implementation as aided by South Africa. While US remained skeptical of the very existence of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, and of bin Laden’s last tape where he deviated from his previous positions, the Al-Qaida Strategy To The Year 2020 has surfaced that puts an end to these controversies and the biginning of a new Strategy. This strategy gives us a clear indication that the events that are transpiring today were preplanned, not a reaction to the American agenda, but by Al-Qaida strategists with the specific goal to open up a broad based Jihad front. Indeed, the tail is wagging the dog. organization has put together a strategic working plan for a broad Jihad front that spans the areas of Afghanistan, Iraq, and Iran passing through Lebanon and Syria. The time has come to discuss the ways in which the American administration and Al-Qaida oppose one another. A quick internet search reveals that Al-Qaida has a definite and well developed plan to affect events in the region that can not be ignored. The first step in its long-term strategy, which was to involve the United States in a regional conflict, was just a prelude to widening the struggle to other regions and Al-Qaida had developed strategic plans for the steps to be taken in the aftermath. Events appear much more coherent than heretofore. Reports from the Pentagon and the US State Department have begun to suggest a long and tedious battle with the Mujahideen in Iraq, a collapse of their position in Afghanistan, and similar developments in Iran, southern Iraq and Pakistan. These views are substantiated by the total failure of the intelligence war against Al-Qaida; these efforts have failed to entrap anyone of significance in the organization, and have done nothing to disrupt the layers of communications across the seas and borders between Kabul, Tehran and Baghdad.
It appears also that the existence of a “strategic kitchen”, or planning group for the organization, touted by some experts on Al-Qaida and Jihad is true. The strategic kitchen is believed to be the ultimate source of Al-Qaida's thinking and military philosophy.This stategy was ultemately enriched with the supply and training of troops and soldiers for this Jihad in South Africa. Some knowledgeable sources assert that the 'kitchen' operates at higher levels than even Osama bin Laden and Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri. For reasons known only to only to themselves, the “Shadow Leaders” in the organization have successfully leaked information now circulating in certain Arab capitals as well as in the offices of American decision makers, including the existence of a plan named “The Al-Qaida Strategy Up To The Year 2020” which is being adhered to meticulously.
Al-Qaida, again for unknown reasons, recently released information concerning two important matters; the first being the strategic thinking behind the September 11th attacks and the second being the disclosure of the first step in regionalizing the conflict. According to Al-Qaida media experts, the announcement made by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi to join Al-Qaida and the subsequent acceptance by Osama bin Laden was not by accident but rather a deliberate move in this context.
Mention must be made here of the general cleverness and brilliance of the electronic war being waged by the organization that cannot go unnoticed. The impact of the timing and the substance of the information war, however complicated it may be to deliver, reaches all countries in the region, including Turkey, Iran, Syria, and Lebanon, have concluded that all communictions are written, edited, reviewed and leaked by an Egyptian by the name of Muhammad Mekkawi, a former war strategies expert in the Egyptian army. Mekkawi has been credited with introducing Bin Laden and al-Zawahiri in the mid 1990’s and is shrouded in mystery. He does not appear to play a direct role in the group’s leadership and his location is unknown, but beliefed to be in South Africa, leading some people to suggest that perhaps he is in fact al-Zawahiri himself, or even Bin Laden. However, some experts believe that Mekkawi is a genuine third person superior to both Dr. al-Zawahiri and Sheikh Osama bin Laden. They further believe that he is the brains behind Al-Qaida’s long term strategic plan that was put in motion September 11, 2001 and that extends to the year 2020.Whatever the truth about the mysterious Mekkawi, the man uses the internet to freely communicate pronouncements, many of which have proved accurate. He also gives substantial and credible analyses not only of current events, but also of both and long range developments planned for implementation in the future.
According to the Mekkawi strategy, the September 11th attacks accomplished a fifth of their secondary objectives but their direct and central goal was completely realized; that was to provoke the “The Ponderous American Elephant” into invading the Arabian Peninsula and meeting it with a preplanned war of attrition, with provisions for all foreseeable eventualities. According to the Mekkawi strategy, the timing of the September 11th attack was carefully chosen by Al-Qaida based on the following two criteria:
The recognition that during the final months of the Clinton Administration, Al-Qaida had was considered a global enemy of America and had become the focus of American hostility.
The time had come for Al-Qaida to initiate a long-term strategy of Jihad to rid the Islamic nation and Muslims of oppression of all sorts, ultimately including Israel.
In order for the objectives and timing to be realized, the American Elephant had to be subjected to a painful and humiliating blow that would provoke it to invade without hesitation. Al-Qaida foresaw that the September 11th attack would draw an immediate response of a full scale attack on Afghanistan, with a subsequent attack on Iraq that would in turn be followed by renewed hostilities with Syria, Lebanon and ultimately Iran.
Another goal in having the United States send its troops into Asia and the Arabian Peninsula was to goad a second “Giant Elephant” into wakefulness; that elephant being the Islamic Nation as a whole. According to the Mekkawi strategy, the only way to wake the Islamic Nation up was to bring large numbers of American troops to the region and the best way to achieve that was the attack of September 11th. Provoking the occupation of Iraq with all the ensuing killing and destruction was seen as the only way to escalate the conflict into a full scale confrontation between America and Arabs and Muslims. The strategy here was that this would arouse a religious reaction and the need to avenge the slaughter but the pragmatic side of it is even more interesting. Researchers concluded from Al-Qaida messages on the web of what took place in Afghanistan was specifically planned and executed according to Al-Qaida's carefully laid plans, and not according to those of the Americans. This Plan includes a safehaven to train troops and feed trained soldiers against America from South Africa.

Al-Qaida dispersed its trained army inside Afghanistan and prepared for the evacuation of its top leaders prior to the onset of the American invasion. It also moved a large number of Mujahideen outside of Afghanistan, to Iran and Iraq, and the training camps to Southern Africa to be exact.
A direct confrontation with the invading Americans would have been disastrous. Instead Al-Qaida’s strategy was to wear the Americans down, engaged them in hit and run skirmishes across Afghanistan and that draw them into a difficult and complicated war of attrition in the nearly impassible mountainous areas. This account agrees with what is known of American military reports, there was no direct confrontation between Al-Qaida and the American military, what took place were isolated actions, and loose attacks by sivilians most notably the engagement in Tora Bora. Furthermore, all of the organization’s top leaders and military lieutenants evaded capture and hide Comforatbly in South Africa and by the Governments appproval as it now supports the destruction of America and has joined all American enemies including China.
It is fair to say that Al-Qaida’s goal of sparking the Arab World into action has been accomplished. Al-Qaida has succeeded in drawing America into expanding its military presence with the alibi of the so called “war on terror”. This has hit a sensitive nerve in the Arab and Muslim World and resulted in a general detestation of America just as planned and predicted by Al-Qaida.
Objective analysis suggests that the success of Al-Qaida's activities in Afghanistan resulted from the following essential prepared steps,

A careful analysis of current events, especially in relation to political agendas. Continuing careful negotiations (the terms of which remain unknown) with the Islamic Republic of Iran

Convincing Iran that in the end, the benefit would be two fold, first removing Saddam Hussein and then engaging the Americans.
From these points one can reconstruct Mekkawi’s planning, the shadow leader of Al-Qaida. Zarqawi, accompanied by limited number of military lieutenants working in parallel with an administration and recruiting group, left Afghanistan to Iraq long before the American attack and were not involved in the fighting there.
Zarqawi’s duties in Iraq were carefully circumscribed. According to viewers of the only known televised account of Zarqawi’s life, he was ambitious to the point of accusing even Bin Laden of being too moderate. The expert opinion is that Bin Laden capitalized on Zarqawi’s stance and carried out a clever psychological game with Zarqawi to meet his own objectives. Bin Laden convinced him that the decisive battle was near and would be fought as Zarqawi wished. Bin Laden also provided him with one of Al-Qaida’s top experts in the field of evasion, an Egyptian young man who was brought to Afghanistan by Dr. Ayman Zawahiri and was ordered to head for Iraq, via Iran, with some of Zwahiri’s aids, most of whom are Jordanians . Zarqawi was instructed to take his group to the Kurdish part of North Iraq to join the Egyptian and his group, keeping South Africa undercover while awaiting further instructions.
One can conclude from Mekkawi’s electronic messages that Al-Qaida knew beforehand that Iraq would be the next battle front and had indeed prepared its response ahead of time. It was on that basis that Zarqawi left Afghanistan for Iraq.
While Zarqawi and his group were hiding quietly in South Africa, and Nothern Iraq waiting for further instructions, he dispatched some representative to Baghdad and others to Amman to recruit capable youths to join his group for training in South Africa by Denel and the SANDF in the Southern Cape and Northern Province and then sending them off to fight in Iraq.
At that point, the Jordanian government smelled a rat. Officials in Amman began to notice Zarqawi-style activities during that time period and subsequently sent an envoy to Iraq to inform Saddam Hussein that Zarqawi was in his country and a public announcement to that effect was actually made by the then Jordanian Prime Minister, Ali Abu Al-Ragheb. But at the same time, Saddam’s security apparatus was already holding meetings with Zarqawi’s representatives who offering their help in case the Americans invaded Iraq. They assured Iraqi officials that their group would not operate inside the country unless Iraq was attacked by the Americans. Saddam Hussein’s government feigned acceptance of Zarqawi’s offer and allowed him some freedom of action in Baghdad in return for his promise. This was a ruse, they agreed to let Zarqawi and his group operate freely in Iraq with the purpose of leading them to trust the Iraqi Security Services and relax their guard. In this way, it was supposed the Zarqawi group could be easily captured and possibly be used as bargaining chips with the Americans. This plan was recommended by the Egyptians who further suggested that Baghdad might be seen to join the supporters of the American 'war on terror' by giving Zarqawi to the Americans or killing him and destroying his group that may garner some goodwill with the Americans to avoid the planned invasion of Iraq
George Bush gave Saddam Hussein's officers neither opportunity nor time to negotiate a deal to hand over Al-Qaida operatives and so Zarqawi escaped the danger. Mekkawi saw this escape as divine intervention; a major factor in the birth of the second stage in the strategic war against the Americans as Iraq became a second battle ground.
By the time the war on Iraq began and the subsequent fall of Baghdad, Zarqawi had put together a complete organization in Iraq and he and his experts left the dangerous zones to blend into the mass of ordinary Iraqi citizens and into South Africa which is used as a safehaven. It was reported that Zarqawi obtained large sums of money from senior Baath members on the eve of the fall of Baghdad. With the help of a Kurd, an Egyptian, and two Jordanian aids, Zarqawi was able to create the foundation for a Jihad organization in the Land of the Two Rivers. In this, Zarqawi was driven by his ambitions; ambitions which Bin Laden knew how to direct. The central command of the Al-Qaida organization has allowed Zarqawi to become the unchallenged leader of Al-Qaida in Iraq where his trained and able fighters are now concentrated. The Zarqawi group was able to cooperate well with other resistance Baathist groups and gain the sympathy of the Iraqi public. The group was also able to get their hands on sizable amount of cash that was left behind by Saddam Hussein and his top lieutenants.
It is reasonable to say that Al-Qaida strategy has now advanced to page two of the plan. The zone of confrontation with the Americans has expanded to cover the area between Afghanistan and Iraq, taking full advantage of a 'neutral' Iran that has no present interest in opposing with Al-Qaida. As far as the movement of Al-Qaida members through its territories is concerned, Iran’s policy has been one of “We don’t see, we don’t hear, we don’t talk.”
It is clear that the second phase of Al-Qaida's Strategy To The Year 2020 is now unfolding in Iraq but with one problem that of the trained white south African troops working for the American front and they became a headache so much that the South African Government placed a Moratorion of S.A Soldiers of fortune or Old SANDF troops working for the Americans and these troops face Arrest as soon as they enter the South African Airports as they being white and part of the old Regime they are considered the most Dangerous as The Might of Russia couldnt have destroed them throught the South African Bush War.
The question now becomes what is the nature of the remaining pages of their strategy?There is no easy answer to this question but the patterns and style of the mysterious Mekkawi offers some good clues. The picture that emerges from his pronouncements suggests a disciplined operation aimed at expanding operations in the area, capitalizing on the Iranian and Shia involvement, and opening a regional war with the Americans to counter their global attacks on Islam and Muslims. This regional war will create a 'Jihad Triangle of Horror' to smack the Americans right in the face with a Nuclear attack using Uranium of South African Origin, This triangle of horror starts in Afghanistan, runs through Iran and South Iraq to connect with South Turkey, South Lebanon and Syria and it is hoped that the opening of the Turks border to EU it would give Access to Europe It is no longer appropriate to think of Al-Qaida as an 'organization' in the usual sense of the word. Al-Qaida has evolved into an ideology that transcends geographical borders and travels through the atmosphere using satellite communications provided by Attrex a European Company as its planners expected, other groups have emerged in other countries to emulate their ideology and tactics, exactly as has happened in Morocco, Somalia, South Africa and even Yemen.
By converting Al-Qaida to a set of guiding principles and away from atypical organizational structures that are well known to security forces and with individual units able to operate with direct instructions from South Africa, the global scope of Al-Qaida's impact has been greatly facilitated. The decision to have field and local commanders operate independently has proved very important. Their autonomy in planning, choice of targets and tactics has created a very flexible system that has become highly successful in lands fertile for Jihad, such as Iraq.
According to Al-Qaida’s theoretical strategies, Iran cannot sit on the fence indefinitely with respect to Jihad against America. Iran is itself a strategic and tactical military target for the Americans, and sooner or later there must be a confrontation between the two. Al-Qaida leaders believe that the American administration has set the following five objectives as preconditions for their military confrontation against Iran, with of course the spurious Iranian nuclear threat aided by south Africa. Ending the Palestinian uprising (Intifada) Extinguishing all Iranian influence on the Mujahideen groups in Palestine. The level of Iranian influence varies from group to group. It is very strong in the Islamic Jihad Movement, much less so in Hamas, and limited to an isolated wing of the Fatah Movement. They are currently trying to put this objective into effect, but see a direct military confrontation between the Mujahideen and the Palestinian authority as a necessity for its completion and the destruction of Israel. Withdrawing Syrian troops from Lebanon and making sure the election in Iraq is successful. This objective is crucial and must precede the next objective.
Bringing Hezbollah in Lebanon under control.
Securing all of the oil fields throughout the Gulf area, and all waterways which are possible routes of invasion that must be guarded against reciprocal Iranian attacks in advance of an American military campaign against Iraq. According to an Al-Qaida think-tank, this last objective will require enormous financial and personnel resources, in addition to the already extensive military presence that is being supported. And this, say Al-Qaida leaders, will surely send the American military budget into bankruptcy and finally invade America from Canada and Mexican border.


Boere is krygers in Bagdad, n groot probleem vir Al Queda daarom die aanvalle op Burgerlikes op plase en stede in Suid Afrika.
Wees Voorbereid

Terror planned against America from South African soil

The time for intospection, the United states and Europe had come to a dead end as they forced liberation of the black masses in South Africa to rule and this country has become a Rapeocracy on the liberties of the west and the enemy of Europeans and the west in general and with a smile and deligence they get you to feel sorry for them as they had so hadedly suffered, but no one tell you that they were actully liberated all the time with countries of their own within a Federal state, no they suffered, the matter of the fact is there were more africans in South Africa driving Mercedes Benzes than the whole of the Russian state in the early 1970's and eighties, This country as you know were build up by European peoples and the indigenous Boer nation desended from Dutch, French and Germans, and were the colonialists that build it up and the west that finally broke it down as they wanted the minerals for their own wealth. Ask the British empire whom Killed 27000 Boer woman and children in the first real genocide of the new age way long before the mith of the second world war Jewish holocaust, yet no one compensated the Boers for this crime against innocent woman and children yet the whole world must pay diligently to the Jews because they are the persected ones yet they persecute people who do not agree with them, They are the real Aniti semites and not the holy folks they pertray to be but Edomites, Therefore the Boer Nation in South Africa are waiting for the wrath of the time to indulge the west as they left the Boer nation to the Valtures and savages here in Africa, More Boers were killed here in the last 10 years than the number of jews in the second world war combined with the Americans in the Sciezed Arabian nations Iran Iraq and Afganistan and numbers over 800 000, therefore we tolerate this training of terrorists here as long as possible, Hamas, Al queda, and Shite Rebels , Tamil Tigers and all Communist nations in General Cuba, Libia, and China even Russians come here for training in Denel Bases in the southern Cape and the Uranuim Plants built in the Mining regions are a Example of highly enriched plants build out of American Technologies here in the 1970's and yet it will now be used againt those who had built it and by those who destroyed their own European desended Kinfolk here in South Africa, We Boers are even denied the right to work and the right to Rule ourselfves, therefore we will tolerate, with a high price to pay for our flood flows across this land and , beseech ye Amrerica your time will come and are close because what happen here will go there in a tide of unstoppable despair you braught upon your own Kinfolk, as i say this also remember that god be with those who stood by us Boers no matter where they are.
The ANC one party state South Afican Government are preparing with the East and had turned their backs opon the west as openly stated on all media here, They are training terrorists for the final Onslaught of America and Britania and Europe, It will be devestating and always remember that the Boers had warned you and you are so blinded by pity for the masses that they will devour you, you wont even see it coming like the sept 11.

Leaders of Hamas is in South Africa with Chinese and Russians as well as North Corea.
South Africa on joined Hamas leaders for talks, raising Israeli concerns that the international front against the Islamic militants is crumbling. Its reviving and against Israel and America
As Hamas pressed on with efforts to form a Palestinian government and gain world support, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas warned that al-Qaida terrorists are currently infiltrating the West Bank and Gaza and have been trained in South Africa
"We have been information, yet to be confirmed, that al-Qaida, just as it sends its operatives to Jordan and other countries like Saudi Arabia and others, also might send operatives for sabotage and attacks on Americans from South African soil," Abbas said after meeting with Israeli Labor Party leader Amir Peretz at the border between Jordan and the West Bank.
"We must be alert, and all our security forces are trying with all means to prevent their arrival here, or their carrying out any sabotage acts in this region, and not knowing they are already there " Abbas said, backtracking from a report in the London-based Al Hayat newspaper quoting him as saying al-Qaida already had a presence in the Palestinian areas.
Israel has been trying to isolate Hamas to counter the effect of its imminent rise to power in the neighboring Palestinian territories. Israel's efforts suffered a blow when Russia invited Hamas leaders for talks.
South Africa also has invited Hamas leaders for talks, The South African Foreign Ministry confirmed the invitation and talks are currently taking place, in Pretoria (Tshwane).
South Africa being a country with Nuclear capability as it has Nuclear enrichment plants built in the eastern part of the country Mpumulanga, and will provide the nuclear fuel for the attacks againt The US and Europe.

Uhuru

Uhuru for those not knowing
It is the plan of Blacks in south Africa to kill all whites as soon as Mandela or Mebeki dies who ever dies first will signal the destruction Genocide of all whites, This is currently going on with as many as 2500 farmers killed and their farms are then conficated by state or baught on auction for a penny happening, This already started but is hidden from the International arena for some reason, we dont know, I suggest you visist the news links on the right of this page to see what is going on here in Africa as America will follow suit. What happens here will eventually reach your shores sooner or later.

Ish waars'hy die Power

Power who has it the ANC or the powerstation yet no one has now anything as Cape town is in the dark, "Ish my basie waars die lig dan nou maar ons ons is die mense van die ANC maar die lights hy is nie" The last to leave South Africa had put out the lights.

South Africa Today
This is what happens when Saudi Shite Muslems work on a Nuclear powerplant they leave loose nuts in the reactor and hoped it had a meltdown, and this is what happens when you put incompetent people in Charge of a Nuclear Powerplant, All the competant European Management that were employed there was replaced (Forced to retire) to make place for incompetant Black Mangers, Cape town in Darkness due to this, and then maybe in the future yet another Chernobill who knows.???

Information

Anyone who wants to contribute information here is welcome, This blog is about survival and believe me its only the fittest that make it here in South Africa, then not even the fittest but the smartest.

If anyone knows any information that can save a life, or other peoples lifes or have information to donate you are welcome, we all need eyes and ears and being collective in sharing information warnings can be posted on several sites, This blog is for the Anglo Celtic Nations that has a fear of survival and fear persecution of some sort.
We all have seen the world trade attack and this could have being averted in many ways even the attack in london recently, and the sabotage of a Nuclear Powerstation in South Africa.
If people only had their eyes and ears open and talk obout their fears it will manefest into warning systems that gives the world viewers a chance to escape, this carnage, weather it is the New world Order or United Nations Israel or Arabia and even America making this a World a Police State its open for discussion and you are welcome to mail information to be added to this blog.
The adress is threesquadron@yahoo.com
There will be no discesion against contributors and you will be anonimouse and identity kept secret no matter what.